Current buyers are looking to cut back on spending, rather than dramatically increase. And that’s based on current prices which are being subsidised by burning investor money, not the prices they need to charge to make a profit.
Cloud and apps didn’t need trillions in investment to still not get off the ground. There isn’t really any scenario in which current AI spending doesn’t turn out to be excessive.
That’s because the amount of AI investment looks like orders of magnitude more than anyone is willing to pay for AI products.
They were happy about spending billions, but now the bubble is into the trillions and there isn’t tens of trillions in market demand to make an investment that big pay off.
Long time Linux user here.
Microsoft would fuck up their implementation of the standard, monitors would all be designed around Microsoft bugs and then OSs that implement the standard correctly have to break their stuff so that Windows monitors will work.
They’re such money pits that they can’t be bailed out - give them a hundred billion dollars and they’ll be back next month for more.
They aren’t a functioning business that just needs help getting back to profitability or help with some sort term crisis, they take hundreds of billions and set it on fire.
We need to be hearing AI customers saying “This is so great, we’re going to double our AI spend next year!”
We’re actually hearing “What’s the ROI on this? We’re looking to cut back.”
That’s just not consistent with the exponential growth OpenAI and Anthropic need to survive.
Yeah, but the AI infrastructure is made out of compute hardware that’s going to need replaced in 6 years. Not rails that will still be useable in 50 years.
We aren’t building lasting infrastructure other than the actual buildings.