Current marginal cost is certainly negative.

The expectation is that development costs will get cheaper (model design solidifies), Training costs will get cheaper (no need to retrain the whole model) and running costs will get cheaper (datacenter economies of scale).

All this is still true.

OpenAI, anthropic, Google etc. will generate excessive by being able to charge more than cost because their models are vastly superior.

Is likely to be false.

Initially maybe. Long term, money has to be returned.

You are correct. OpenAI etc. valuations are based on the difference between revenue and cost. The key part is that open source breaks the monopoly. It stops excessive rent being charged (now or in the future) to use Ai models.

Tech giants will still exist, but closed model advantages won’t.

Why months, not quarters or years?