Ukraine downed a Russian Su-35 on July 8th using a three-aircraft F-16 ambush and a repositioned Patriot battery, exploiting a Russian intercept habit that had worked every time, until Ukraine built the entire trap around it. Russian military bloggers, including Fighterbomber, confirmed the loss and described it themselves: three aircraft plus a Patriot against one of theirs. Ukraine didn’t have to out-fly the Su-35. It just out-thought the pilot flying it.
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“By the time the geometry of the fight stopped being what he thought it was, a missile was already seconds from impact. Russia lost its best air superiority fighter to a tactic built entirely out of russia’s own confidence. Ukraine didn’t need better hardware, it just needed to understand a decision cycle well enough to write the script a russian pilot would follow.”